It doesn’t really take an in-depth report to determine a $1,000 price point for the PS6 will lead to a slump in sales, but that’s the conclusion Ampere Analysis has come to.

In a new document, the industry observers conclude that a “conventionally designed, incrementally improved next-generation console” released in 2028 for $1,000 could lead to a 40% decline in sales compared to the PS5.

Ampere’s analysis combines potential PS6 and Xbox Helix sales, so in this scenario you’d probably expect Sony’s console to be hit the hardest, considering the PS5 has significantly outsold Microsoft’s current-gen machine overall.

The number crunchers believe that this will all lead to a dramatic decrease in industry spending overall, with total sales likely to be 12% lower than if the new consoles were to launch at $700.

I suppose the thinking here is that if fewer people buy the platforms, then there’s going to be less money invested into subscriptions, games, and microtransactions.

I think the big problem here is that none of this is really Sony or Microsoft’s fault. Component prices have soared on the back of AI-led demand, and that’s left all hardware manufacturers in a bind.

Ampere suggests some potential routes to success, including simply delaying until the crisis is over or finding a Wii-like paradigm that will enable all-new next-gen experiences on modest hardware.

To be honest, I’m not sure the latter is feasible: even if PlayStation did successfully dream up an entirely new way to play, you’re still going to need to ship some form of hardware that’s costly to make. Remember, a base PS5 costs much more than it did at launch right now.

Sony’s said publicly it hasn’t decided when it’ll ship the PS6 yet, but presumably it does have some kind of plan privately.

With the memory crisis unlikely to improve for many years, this may just end up the most difficult transition the manufacturer’s ever had to navigate.

[source ampereanalysis.com, via videogameschronicle.com]