Bradley, R., Frigg, R. & Meltzer, A. (2026). Confidence-sensitive anticipatory response to cyclone Kenneth: a counterfactual analysis. Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, [In Press]

This note tests the potential of a confidence-sensitive decision support tool for humanitarian anticipatory action, comparing the level and timing of alerts it would have triggered in advance of cyclone Kenneth landfalling in Mozambique in April 2019 against the alerts and actions taken historically. It demonstrates that even moderately uncertainty intolerant decision makers could have acted earlier had they employed the tool, potentially reducing the impact of the storm considerably.