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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAThe won-dollar exchange rate has continued to ease, trading in the 1,410-won range as both U.S. consumer and producer prices show signs of moderating. Expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates again this year have strengthened, boosting appetite for risk assets.Accord
The won-dollar exchange rate has continued to ease, trading in the 1,410-won range as both U.S. consumer and producer prices show signs of moderating. Expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates again this year have strengthened, boosting appetite for risk assets.
According to the Seoul foreign exchange market, the won-dollar exchange rate stood at 1,414.80 won as of 10:35 a.m. on Aug. 14. The won was expected to open 0.25 won lower than the previous session’s close, reflecting overnight declines in the New York nondeliverable forward (NDF) market. After surging to as high as 1,559.2 won during trading last month, the won has since strengthened and is now nearing the 1,300-won range, supported by large-scale dollar selling by domestic companies and foreign investors’ stock purchases.
A key factor behind the won’s appreciation is the stabilization of U.S. inflation. The Producer Price Index for July was unchanged from the previous month, coming in below the market forecast of a 0.2% increase. The year-on-year increase also slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% in the previous month. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in September, as measured by CME FedWatch, rose to 67.6% from 59.4% the previous day.
Global financial market indicators are also supporting the won’s appreciation. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate both fell more than 2%, dropping into the $80s per barrel. The dollar index also stood at 99.93, below the key 100 level, reflecting continued weakness in the dollar.
As exchange-rate stability becomes more apparent, attention is also turning to the BOK’s monetary policy path. According to the July Export and Import Price Indices released by the BOK, import prices in won terms fell 1.0% from the previous month, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. The decline was driven by a roughly 2.0% drop in the average exchange rate in July from the previous month, along with lower international oil prices. Falling import prices tend to ease pressure on consumer prices with a time lag.
Some analysts say the stabilization of the exchange rate and import prices could give the BOK room to adjust the pace of its rate hikes. However, the BOK made clear at last month’s Monetary Policy Board meeting that it intended to maintain its tightening stance by raising the base rate to 2.75%. All seven board members supported the hike, citing inflation that remained above the target level.
Several factors could limit further declines in the exchange rate. Although the Federal Reserve held rates steady last month, some policymakers continued to call for a rate hike, signaling that the Fed has not abandoned its commitment to monetary tightening. The Korea-U.S. policy rate differential remains inverted by 0.75 to 1.00 percentage point. In South Korea, demand for dollars to settle import payments and from investors buying overseas stocks at lower prices is also limiting the won’s gains.
Experts caution that the won’s recent appreciation could be temporary, driven by supply-and-demand factors. Kim Sang-bong, a professor of economics at Hansung University, said, “It remains to be seen whether supply-and-demand effects from domestic companies’ ADR issuance and other factors will persist,” adding that “the BOK still needs to consider raising rates given the possibility of additional U.S. rate hikes and the inverted Korea-U.S. policy rate differential.”
The BOK will hold a Monetary Policy Board meeting on Aug. 27 to consider whether to raise the base rate further. With BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song saying that all options remain open, the won’s exchange rate, inflation, household lending and other economic indicators are expected to play a key role in future rate decisions.
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Korea Export Prices Hit 28-Year High | 0 | 6.72 | 14-08-2026 |
| 2 | Курс доллара снизился на копейки | 0 | 10 | 27-07-2026 |
| 3 | Курс доллара по отношению к евро перешел к снижению | 0 | 0 | 04-11-2020 |
| 4 | Курс доллара на межбанке опустился ниже 80 рублей впервые с 1 сентября | 0 | 0 | 14-10-2025 |
| 5 | ЦБ понизил курс доллара в России | 0 | 10 | 11-08-2026 |
| 6 | ЦБ понизил курс доллара в России | 0 | 5 | 13-07-2026 |
| 7 | Курс доллара в России упал по итогам недели | 0 | 5 | 03-07-2026 |
| 8 | Банк Кореи понизил учетную ставку до рекордного показателя 0,75% | 0 | 0 | 16-03-2020 |
| 9 | Курс доллара на Forex снижается к евро на 0,19% | 0 | 0 | 21-01-2021 |
| 10 | Курс рубля падает на новостях о возможных санкциях США | 0 | 0 | 15-04-2021 |