Indian bonds buckle under oil spike, fresh debt sale

Synopsis

Indian government bonds declined early Friday, reversing some weekly gains. Higher oil prices and global rate fears impacted investor sentiment before a large debt sale. New Delhi plans to raise 320 billion rupees through bond auctions later today. The benchmark Brent crude contract saw a significant price increase since Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of India maintained its repo rate, easing immediate inflation concerns.

Indian government bonds fell early on Friday, giving up part of the week's gains, as higher oil prices weighed on sentiment ahead of New Delhi's hefty debt sale.

Higher crude prices also pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield up 7 basis points overnight and in Asian ‌trade to ⁠4.68%, reducing ⁠the appeal of riskier emerging market debt.

The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yielded 6.7869% at ​10:40 a.m. IST, 2 basis points above Thursday's close. It was still set ​for its first weekly decline in five weeks.

New Delhi will raise 320 billion rupees ($3.36 billion) through a sale of bonds maturing in five ​years and 40 years later in the ⁠day.

"Appetite for the ‌long-term note will be key to watch ​at the auction, ​with U.S.-Iran tensions and soaring oil prices stoking fears ⁠of higher global rates," a private-bank trader said.

Benchmark Brent ​crude contract was last at $83.71, up over $4, or ​nearly 6% from $79 per barrel on Tuesday.

India is the world's third-largest importer and consumer of oil. Higher crude prices could increase its import bill, push up inflation and weigh on the rupee.

The Reserve Bank of India, however, eased immediate inflation concerns in a more ‌dovish than expected policy announcement on Wednesday.

The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged, but cut its inflation forecast for the year, promising sufficient liquidity for ⁠the banking system, prompting some analysts to push back their calls for rate hikes.

The central bank's rate stance and inflows into its foreign-currency scheme for ​non-residents continue to support short-end demand, traders said.

India's overnight index swap rates also marched higher due to global headwinds.

The one-year swap rose 1.75 bps to 5.7850%, the two-year jumped 3.25 bps to 5.98%, and the five-year was up 2.5 bps at 6.2850%.

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