A separatist supporter holds a flag during a rally near the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026. Two in five Albertans indicated they'd vote for a separation referendum to send a message to Ottawa, even though they want to remain in the country. Photo by HENRY MARKEN /AFP via Getty Images

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Nearly half of Albertans planning to vote for a binding referendum on separating from Canada want to send a message to Ottawa rather than have their province leave the country, a new Angus Reid poll suggests.

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Remaining in Canada still garners the majority of support among 1,017 Albertan respondents surveyed by the pollster between Aug. 10 and 13.

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The most controversial question in the fall referendum over separation has split Albertans into two major camps with nearly two-thirds indicating they would vote to stay and the remaining one-third favouring a binding referendum.

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Three out of five poll respondents voting for a referendum actually want the province to leave, and the rest want to threaten Ottawa, with the total comprising 33 per cent of the survey’s sample. If the question was part of a binding referendum, overall support decreases to 30 per cent and a desire to remain in Canada rises to 65 per cent from 61 per cent.

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Five per cent of respondents, however, remained uncertain about their vote.

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“It’s not necessarily a desire to leave the country,” said Jonathan Roe, a researcher with Angus Reid. “They want to say, ‘We’re upset with the federal government policies.'”

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The group that wants a binding referendum overwhelmingly finds the fall vote “very important,” while only 60 per cent of those who want Alberta to stay in Canada would say the same. A quarter of federalist respondents find the fall plebiscite “important.”

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“So there does appear to be a little bit of a gap in motivation. It’s not not a significant gap, I would say, but like enough that it is a little bit,” Roe said.

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A large majority of respondents to an Angus Reid poll on both sides of the separatism issue said they will be voting in the fall referendum. Photo by David Bloom /Postmedia Network

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Eighty-one per cent of federalists and 88 per cent of separatists responded that they’re certain to vote in the referendum. A key finding by the poll is that support for the binding referendum is the highest among men older than 34, and the lowest among men and women below that age.

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“What we’re seeing from elections and the historical data from elections in Canada shows is that older people are more likely to turn out to vote than younger people,” said Roe, a former Calgary Herald reporter.

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While the certainty among federalists is only seven percentage points lower than the opposing group, historical data raises questions about whether the support for staying in Canada is mainly rhetorical.

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Roe said he takes their intention at face value.

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“I would say overall that we don’t see this high level of certainty for those sorts of campaigns,” he added.

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“Especially I would say this early in the process — like two months out from a provincial or federal election campaign I don’t think we would see 80 per cent of the people saying they’re certain to vote in it. So, I’d say it’s like a higher attention being paid to it.”

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Support for staying in Canada has been consistent for the past year, as several separatist campaigns have tried to galvanize Albertans into advancing their cause. However, the outcome will ultimately boil down to voter turnout.

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Shannon Phillips, Alberta NDP MLA for Lethbridge-West, in a recent blog post highlighted findings from a survey by Pollara, which found that out of more than 1,000 Albertan respondents, separatists are highly motivated to vote at the referendum.