Jain said gold should be treated as an “asset allocation” rather than a tactical trade. He sees it as a counterbalance to equities, bonds, currencies and other local assets. “There is no way I can see where gold doesn't do well in the long term,” he said.

A key part of his argument is rising government debt. Jain said governments globally are spending more than they earn, resulting in persistent fiscal deficits. He believes this creates risks for bond markets and currencies over time.

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Gold vs bonds

Jain also questioned the traditional 60:40 equity-bond portfolio, which benefited from decades of declining interest rates. Falling yields supported bond prices, making bonds an important defensive asset.

He argues that this environment has changed since the Covid period, with bond yields rising. Higher yields can result in mark-to-market losses for existing bond holdings, weakening the traditional diversification benefit of bonds.

Jain believes this could strengthen the case for gold, particularly if governments respond to rising borrowing costs by creating more money. “When you create a lot of money supply, that's a very good signal for gold to go,” he said.

Central banks are buying gold

Central-bank demand is another part of Jain’s thesis. He pointed to China buying 317 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026, questioning why governments are accumulating gold instead of other commodities.

He also sees a supply constraint. According to the figures cited by Jain, a new mine can take around 15 years to begin production, while global mine output is growing at only about 2% annually.

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But can gold see a near-term correction?

The bullish long-term outlook does not rule out short-term volatility. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, expects profit booking near ₹1.53 lakh for MCX Gold October futures.

The contract is trading around ₹1,52,400-₹1,52,600, which Trivedi identifies as an immediate resistance zone. He recommends a sell-on-rise strategy in this range, with a stop-loss above ₹1,53,000 and downside targets of ₹1,51,500 and ₹1,51,000.

Trivedi said the broader trend remains bullish, with the 8-period EMA above the 21-period EMA. However, consolidation near short-term moving averages and candles near the upper Bollinger Band suggest momentum is moderating. The RSI is around 62, indicating positive momentum, while the MACD also points to some moderation.

A decisive move above ₹1.53 lakh would invalidate the short-term bearish setup and could signal a resumption of the broader uptrend.

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Gold as portfolio protection

For Indian investors, Jain sees gold as protection against currency depreciation because it is internationally priced but can be purchased in rupees. He used a hypothetical fall in the rupee from ₹90 to ₹190 against the dollar to explain how gold could protect purchasing power.

His conclusion is therefore less about predicting gold’s next move and more about holding it as “protection” or portfolio insurance.

In short, Jain’s long-term thesis remains bullish even if traders could see a near-term correction: gold’s role as a hedge against currency, debt and financial-system risks remains central to his argument.