Calgary Flames forward Samuel Honzek jostles with Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Sam Rinzel in front of goaltender Spencer Knight during a game last season. Photo by Gavin Young /Postmedia

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There are plenty of exciting young players for Calgary Flames fans to follow this upcoming season.

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Zayne Parekh, Simon Nemec and Matvei Gridin top the list in terms of guys trying to take another step at the NHL level.

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Lost in the mix is Sam Honzek.

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Picked 16th overall in 2023, Honzek has suffered through numerous injuries and subpar counting stats, making him something of the forgotten man in the team’s rebuild.

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The 6-foot-4, 200-pound left-winger will turn 22 this November, meaning his runway as a “prospect” is starting to run out.

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So the question for the player and team is: Can Honzek finally establish himself as a young player of note this season?

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A cursory glance at his results suggests it’s a tall order.

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In 18 NHL games last year, Honzek scored just two goals and four points. The previous year, he managed just eight goals and 21 points in 52 AHL games.

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Honzek’s junior scoring stats weren’t all that impressive, either, with just 31 points in 33 games in his post-draft season, a step back from 56 points in 43 games he garnered in 2022-23.

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All told, Honzek has appeared in just 110 games across various leagues since being drafted three years ago and his scoring hasn’t been noteworthy at any level.

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Having your key development years marred by injury and your offensive stats dry up would normally be a death knell for an NHL prospect’s ambitions. Especially in a system like Calgary’s that starting to become increasingly crowded.

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However, there are some hints hidden in his play last year that suggest Honzek may not only stick as an NHLer, but become an impactful player for the club moving forward.

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Honzek’s package of skills is intriguing.

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He’s big, skates extremely well and can handle the puck. It’s the qualitative stuff that no doubt led the Flames to draft him in the first round. Guys with this profile that can often carve out an NHL career (if they can score enough to stay in the active rotation).

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What’s more encouraging are Honzek’s underlying results in 18 games last year.

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It’s a small sample, but he led the Flames in shots for and against ratio (56.3%) and expected goals for ratio (61.5%) at even strength.

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To put that in perspective, Calgary as a team managed a shot ratio of about 49% and an XGF% of around 46% last year.

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In fact, if we look at relative expected goals rate per 60 minutes (something that tracks a player’s performance against his teammates), Honzek’s +1.29 XGF/60 was the best in the league among skaters with at least 190 minutes of ice time.

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These stats sound obscure, but being able to dominate possession and scoring chance ratios are skills Mikael Backlund started flashing at around this age.

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He built his career as a two-way force by being able to push the puck in the right direction against practically any opponent. It’s how he became the go-to, hard-minutes option for every Flames coach since Mike Keenan.