Edmonton Chamber president Doug Griffiths speaks at the State of the City luncheon at the Convention Centre on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Shaughn Butts/Postmedia

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While experts see the latest U.S. tariff threat targeting nearly $29 billion worth of Canadian goods as a tough bargaining chip rather than a genuine move, they still caution businesses to keep their guard up.

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“You really can’t take any tariff threat lightly,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal. “This one certainly is very meaningful.”

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The new tariffs could cut Canada’s GDP by as much as 0.5 per cent if they were to go through and stick around for a while, Porter added. That may pile on the 1.5 per cent dent the Bank of Canada estimated before new levies were in the picture.

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In July, U.S. President Donald Trump revealed plans to impose a new 50 per cent tariff on hundreds of Canadian goods by Aug. 19, in response to what his government called trade “discrimination” against American cars, alcoholic beverages and dairy.

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The range of goods that could be affected by the new tariff includes toys, bicycles, honey and paper products. Other things listed include various grades of plywood, cartons or cases of corrugated paper and wooden doors.

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“A 50 per cent tariff would probably pretty much cease the export of all those goods,” Porter said.

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Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia were hit hardest last year, as tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos put a dent in the provinces’ economies. Still, Canada’s economy grew last year.

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Canadian energy, potash and critical minerals would remain exempt from the new tariffs. That carveout has sheltered resource-rich provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan from the brunt of the effects.

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“The trade war really has not had a big impact on those two provinces,” Porter said. “The more dependent you are on manufactured goods, the more susceptible you have been to the trade war.”

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Still, uncertainty from tariffs may linger over Alberta businesses.

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“I don’t think the anxiety went away from the whole last year,” said Doug Griffiths, chief executive of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce.

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“Businesses need consistency, and we just have not had it for such a long time,” Griffiths said.

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Moshe Lander, an economics lecturer at Concordia University and an Alberta resident, said merely talking about tariffs could create a chill for businesses.

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“On a day-to-day basis, you might not notice what’s going on, but accumulated over time, this is the type of thing where Alberta could very easily end up on the loser pile as well,” Lander said.

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Meanwhile, Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta, said its members are not overly concerned with the latest round of tariff threats, mostly because of the energy exemption.

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“The optimism amongst our members is still quite strong,” Legge said.