No matter how it finally ends, the conflict with Iran likely will drive up green technology profits for China. The war also seems certain to have a lasting energy impact on the many Global South countries (especially in Southeast Asia) which are so highly dependent on reliable oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz. As Mideast tensions rose sharply, for instance, China sold 5.5 gigawatts of solar capacity to Southeast Asia in March 2026, which is nearly twice as much as in 2025.

China is the linchpin of global supply chains for the solar panels, wind turbines, grid components, and lithium-ion batteries sent to the Global South. In 2024, China’s clean technology exports to developing countries, including electric vehicle (EVs), garnered a staggering $72 billion. China is also the chief financier of clean energy infrastructure for developing countries, investing over $220 billion since 2022. And among the developing countries of Southeast Asia, China is now the largest single source of international renewable energy finance. Recent data shows that in the first half of 2025 alone, Belt and Road “green energy engagement” hit a record $9.7 billion.

Without drastic domestic cost reductions in clean technology products and lowering upfront energy capital costs, most developing countries can’t escape their reliance on fossil fuels. In nations such as South Africa, the challenges and opportunities are already evident. Yet as China’s clean technology export regime reshapes emission trajectories in several key Global South regions and makes a dent in global carbon emissions, it is essential to ask:  Is China’s supremacy in this space a blessing or curse for developing countries?

Global South countries accounted for nearly 50% of the growth in China’s clean technology exports (solar, wind, electric grid components, and EVs) from 2021 to 2024, surpassing the country’s low-carbon products shipped to the developed world for the first time. China’s Global South exports rose 32 percent in 2024, while clean technology exports to  developed counties  declined by 6 percent.

The benefits of China’s dominance in clean technology export for the Global South are readily apparent on the economic, access, and environmental fronts.

The rise in China’s mass-produced clean technologies (supported by heavy subsidies until 2018) has helped to dramatically lower energy prices in the Global South. As a result, a “solar power boom” has occurred in South Africa and Pakistan, and cheap Chinese exports to Brazil and Thailand are surging. Wind power technology from China also has been gobbled up in the Global South. Five of the largest importers of China’s low-priced wind power technology imports are South Africa, Egypt, Chile, Brazil, and Uzbekistan.

This rapid upswing has reduced costs in developing countries with limited fiscal resources and a wobbly national electrical grid. China’s low-carbon export regime is also expanding access to energy in countries lacking significant domestic energy systems and  modest clean technology industries.

Rural and off-grid communities in Sub-Saharan Africa (including Zimbabwe and Nigeria) and in South Asia (such as Pakistan) suddenly have access to low-cost solar panels and batteries. The Global South also is embracing low-cost EVs, extending and strengthening its transmission lines, and electrifying mini-grids and solar farms. China’s exports are responsible for much of this activity, which is preparing these regions ahead of an energy demand curve, which estimates that 85% of new energy demand will come from the Global South.

The effect of China’s clean energy exports (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and EV’s) is traced in a new report which estimates that these technologies already are reducing global carbon emissions by 1%. Combined with overseas low-carbon investments, these exports are estimated to curb emissions in sub-Saharan Africa by a whopping 3%, with even larger  cuts (4.5%) anticipated in Global South countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Another report confirms that countries importing clean technology goods from China can anticipate significant total and per capita carbon emission reductions.

An expansion in relevant education, technology skills upgrades, and training needed to manufacture and service these products is also part of the boom. While major Chinese firms continue to sell their technologies in the Global South, there will likely be rising demand for a trained local workforce to install, maintain, and upgrade these and related green technology products.

China established a Luban Workshop initiative in 2016, to establish local vocational education hubs that aim to promote skills development, though such efforts have been controversial. Nevertheless, the increased tempo of green tech activities in the Global South could help jump start a clean energy workforce without additional infrastructure.

The  clean tech product boom created by China’s exports to the Global South is not without risks, however. Muyi Yang, Senior Analyst at the energy think tank Ember, suggests that a thorny and unresolved challenge is how these countries can leverage “Chinese investment to build local industrial capabilities.” Clean technologies imported from China are extremely cheap by local standards, especially when it comes to solar panels. The combination of  China’s extraordinary  manufacturing economies of scale and overproduction of clean tech (facilitated by its previous massive government subsidies) offers start-up companies in the Global South scant hope for success.  A cycle of cutthroat competition with miniscule profit margins places  domestic clean tech companies in the region that are unable to scale up on their back foot, thus sentencing Global South countries to an unfavorable status of end-users  only.

China’s massive one-way clean tech export regime also  deepens the trade deficit of developing countries. The responses to extract more value are limited:   One tool is to raise import duties, while another is to demand local-content product provisions and tech transfer from Chinese suppliers.

A deepening reliance on China as a clean technology superpower, also can easily translate into strong political and even miliary dependencies over time.  China plays the long game in developing its ascendent positions, so incremental economic reliance on China across the entire energy value chain from solar panels to national power grids does pose significant national security and geopolitical risks that can compromise national sovereignty.

Without drastic domestic cost reductions in clean technology products, most developing countries cannot escape their reliance on fossil fuels. China to the rescue! But how does this dynamic play out on the ground? South Africa’s experience provides an interesting case study.

Yang observes that “batteries and inverters have also become cheaper, better and much more widely available” in South Africa in recent years. For a country which experiences an average of six to nine serious outages each month, keeping the lights on, and businesses humming, is vital. “Households and commercial users can reduce their electricity costs and keep operating during power cuts,” he continues, noting that  low-cost clean tech Chinese exports to South Africa also make electricity “accessible to a much wider group.”   

Naa Adjekai Adjei, a Non-Resident Fellow focused on Africa at the China Global South Project, says that the numbers driving the boom in this country are clear.  “South Africa’s imports of Chinese solar panels rose from 0.6 GW to 3.4 GW in the first half of 2023,” she says. “[That is] an almost sixfold increase, as households and businesses sought greater independence from an unreliable grid and rising electricity tariffs”. She adds that “China could make a greater contribution by financing transmission and storage and supporting joint ventures, local manufacturing and skills development.”

It is clear that China is making positive alterations to  emissions trajectories and  global carbon emissions through its policies and exports. Tensions in the Middle East will likely strengthen China’s hand.

Yet Chinese exports to the Global South do create a paradox for developing countries with tight budgets seeking to  pivot away from polluting fossil fuels. Can they embrace the benefits of these exports without creating a problematic over-dependency on China and its vast global supply chain networks that may threaten their own national sovereignty?

Steve Gale a Senior Strategic Advisor at Global Foresight Strategies LLC and Senior Foresight Advisor emeritus at USAID. He has previously served as Human Security Senior Advisor at the National Intelligence Council, and as the U.S. Representative to, and later Chair of the OECD/DAC Foresight Community of Practice.

Sources: African Business; Bloomberg NEF; Brookings Institution; China Global South; Dialogue Earth; Eco-Business; Ember; IEA; Internationale Politik Quarterly; New York Times; RMI; Sustainability Dialogue; Trellis; UNDP; USCC; Washington Post; World Economic Forum

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