"Almost a 5% sales decline is a lousy start for the first meaningful month of cooling season, but it is not as weak as the headline," said Brian Loftus, senior market analyst at HARDI.

Courtesy of Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International
COLUMBUS, Ohio — May sales by distributors that participate in the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) monthly survey fell by 4.8%.
"Almost a 5% sales decline is a lousy start for the first meaningful month of cooling season, but it is not as weak as the headline," said Brian Loftus, senior market analyst at HARDI. "This May had one less billing day than May of 2025. We estimate sales would have been about flat or comparable year-to-year with the same number of billing days."
Annual sales for the 12 months through May 2026 increased by 2.6%.
HARDI’s monthly distributor sales survey also calculates Days Sales Outstanding or DSO, a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills. The DSO for May 2026 was less than 38 days. "There is seasonality to the DSO, so we need to compare the latest results to the corresponding prior months,” said Loftus. "The May DSO is a bit quicker than the 40 days reported during May of 2022, May of 2023, and May of 2024.
"An early start to heating season got sales off and running in our Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions," Loftus continued. "With a lot of difficult weather comps across the country during the next couple of months, we need that summer magic to cook up some demand or our annual sales growth will remain in low single-digit range."
HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for monthly sales data and can discontinue participation in the survey without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data, which can include sales information about products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.
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