Elon Musk and SpaceX Have the High Ground. How much will that matter?

SpaceX already has almost all of the satellites and launches. He will is making the satellites and the rockets ten to 100 times better in the year or two.

Are the bears right when they say that SpaceX will only be a bit more profitable than Comcast?

SpaceX is just 16 days before its widely expected June 12 IPO.

Elon’s new AI satellite tease.

Elon already has 90%+ of all commercial satellites. He will make them 10+ times better this year and then another 10-100X in the nexxt 36 months. He is updating the design with massive solar arrays (possibly 300-400 kW total power vs. earlier 100 kW estimates), advanced chips that run hotter (smaller radiators), and deployable V3 Starlink units. These AI-focused satellites can operate in sun-synchronous (dawn-dusk) or higher orbits for 24/7 sunlight and low-latency AI compute.

AI sats are distinct from comms V3 versions and could even go into solar orbits.

Starship flight 12 launch success. Despite ~90% new hardware and one Raptor 3 flame-out, it delivered stunning footage of the PEZ dispenser deploying Starlinks (including views around the Moon), soft-landed Starship in the Indian Ocean, and proved rapid iteration.

Next milestones will be engine relight (for full reuse), orbital V3 deployments, and rapid cadence. This unlocks $100/kg launch costs, V3 Starlink (20,000+ sats, terabit-per-second capacity, 10-20× speed/customers).

Explosive revenue & AI growth

xAI/SpaceX AI infrastructure (Anthropic rental at ~$1.25B/month, Cursor acquisition adding hundreds of millions/month) is already becoming the majority of revenue and will double yearly. Projections: ~$41B total in 2026 (AI dominant), continued doubling into 2027-2029 with space AI scaling. Starlink broadband (~$15B in 2026) and direct-to-cell are secondary but massive. Positions SpaceX as the “AWS of space” for AI data centers (terrestrial + future orbital terawatt-scale).

Total Addressable Market (TAM) & Starlink dominance. Launch, broadband ($870B), mobile ($740B), advertising ($250B+ potential with billions of users), payments (WeChat-style, regulatory delays), and enterprise AI agents. V3/V4 will crush telecom capex ($300B+/year) by being faster/cheaper and reaching rural/underserved markets (Africa, India, etc.). Lunar manufacturing could 1,000× production and drop costs 10× more.

IPO details – Valuation tracking $2.4–2.5 trillion (Hyperliquid instrument, betting markets).

10×+ oversubscribed with $10 billion interest from BlackRock and a billion from Ron Baron. Only ~5% float initially. unlocks tied to 30%+ pops. Path to major indexes (Nasdaq 100, S&P). Bull case: $250B+ revenue / $150B profit by 2028 justifies $6–20T valuation.

As a disclaimer and disclosure, Brian is an investor with stakes in Tesla, SpaceX, and other stocks, indexes, ETFs, as well as startups, and is actively involved in startup ventures and with wealth management.