US chip restrictions on China and the Asian nation's focus on local chips are expected to reduce AMD and NVIDIA's market share in the country this year, suggests a fresh report from market research firm TrendForce. Previous reports have suggested that while Chinese firms, such as Huawei, have been unable to produce chips that are on par with the most advanced US AI chips, the production boom spurred by domestic incentives stands to grow the shipments of domestic chips.

Today's report follows an earlier one that surfaced last month to claim that Chinese domestic AI chip shipments could sit at five million units in 2026. The previous report suggested that shipments of chips manufactured by the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and Shanghai Hua Hong could grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 50% for the next couple of years.

Now, today's report from market research firm TrendForce adds details about the expected market share of NVIDIA and AMD in 2026. While NVIDIA and AMD's GPUs are not completely banned from being sold to Chinese firms, the US government has moved them to a conditional approval process to ensure that the products are not used by the Chinese military and other related entities.

These details suggest that high-end Chinese AI chip shipments are expected to grow by 83% annually in 2026. When combined with the US restrictions, TrendForce expects the growth to impact AMD and NVIDIA's market share in the country. This market share is expected to drop to 10% by 2026, while the domestic chips are slated to capture 90% of the market share. The research firm adds that these chips include custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), namely from Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent. They also include chips from Huawei and Cambricon.

TrendForce adds that NVIDIA is also preparing to meet this challenge. The research firm outlines that NVIDIA will introduce a variant of its RTX Pro 5000 GPU to China. This GPU will rely on GDDR7 memory in order to comply with the US sanctions. The RTX Pro 5000 is a member of NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU family, and older reports have suggested that NVIDIA will actually sell the RTX 6000D to Chinese customers.

As for the RTX Pro 5000, it sits a level below the non-China RTX 6000 GPU, which is the flagship product of the Blackwell family. The firm introduced an upgraded variant of the chip with more memory in December 2025.

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