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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAHere is more from The Economist: "As an uneasy truce holds between America and Iran, experts are struggling to predict what new phase the conflict may enter next. Might an artificial intelligence model know any better? To find out, The Economist asked RAND, a think tank, to see if its new AI forecasting system thought a popular uprising was in the offing in Iran. Integrated Strategic Forecasting (ISF), as the system if known, put the chance of regime collapse or replacement by the end of 2026 at 20% - higher than many experts would hazard.There are caveats. The forecast was produced without classified intelligence. Its inputs and outputs were also no vetted by humans, as is customary for forecasts commissioned by government agencies, notes Anthony Vassalo, RAND's head of prediction technology and a former senior official in America's Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Even so, Mr. Vassalo is bullish. He describes ISF, which was completed in February, as "the better crystal ball" policymakers have long sought. Here is more about RAND's Forecasting Initiative (RFI), and here is one of their latest papers entitled "Aligning Forecasting Methods to Support Intelligence Community Analytic Tradecraft."
Here is more from The Economist:
"As an uneasy truce holds between America and Iran, experts are struggling to predict what new phase the conflict may enter next. Might an artificial intelligence model know any better? To find out, The Economist asked RAND, a think tank, to see if its new AI forecasting system thought a popular uprising was in the offing in Iran. Integrated Strategic Forecasting (ISF), as the system if known, put the chance of regime collapse or replacement by the end of 2026 at 20% - higher than many experts would hazard.
There are caveats. The forecast was produced without classified intelligence. Its inputs and outputs were also no vetted by humans, as is customary for forecasts commissioned by government agencies, notes Anthony Vassalo, RAND's head of prediction technology and a former senior official in America's Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Even so, Mr. Vassalo is bullish. He describes ISF, which was completed in February, as "the better crystal ball" policymakers have long sought.
Here is more about RAND's Forecasting Initiative (RFI), and here is one of their latest papers entitled "Aligning Forecasting Methods to Support Intelligence Community Analytic Tradecraft."
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Connecticut analysts, Iranian-Americans weigh U.S.-Iran deal aimed at ending conflict | 0 | 7 | 18-06-2026 |