MOSCOW, August 4. /TASS/. The US, Iran aim to restart direct negotiations; Ukraine intensifies strikes on civilian infrastructure after an army reshuffle; and Syria could serve as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

The United States and Iran resumed talks late on August 3. US President Donald Trump called off a planned attack on Iran in an effort to reach an agreement before the November congressional elections. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to maintain a strong position due to its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamental differences between Washington and Tehran are too deep, while military activities by Israel and the Yemen-based Houthis could spark another round of large-scale escalation in the region at any moment, Izvestia writes.

Vladimir Sazhin, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, believes that regular message exchanges between the parties suggest that both countries are seeking to reduce regional tensions. Further military escalation would not benefit Tehran, as Iran’s economy remains under significant pressure, while any disruption to key land and maritime logistics routes would only worsen the country’s economic crisis.

However, even if Tehran and Washington maintain dialogue, they are unlikely to reach a comprehensive agreement because of their deeply rooted opposing positions. Trump may announce the signing of a temporary framework agreement to gain political points ahead of the congressional elections, but deep-rooted disagreements between the two sides will remain unresolved, Farkhad Ibragimov, a lecturer at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia and the Financial University under the Russian Government, noted.

In his view, the parties are unlikely to make their negotiations public. Iran is expected to act with considerable restraint, while the United States may claim some success. However, once the outcome of the US congressional elections is known, tensions could intensify again, triggering another exchange of strikes.

In the meantime, Iran appears to hold a stronger position in the talks. According to Sazhin, Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz remains its key bargaining chip. The Iranian authorities are likely to use this leverage in the near future to push for an easing of US sanctions and the release of the country's frozen foreign assets.

The Ukrainian armed forces have increased attacks on civilian infrastructure following a leadership reshuffle, a Russian Foreign Ministry official told Izvestia. Ukrainian strikes on civilian targets grew under former Defense Minister Mikhail Fyodorov, and the newly appointed commander-in-chief, Mikhail Drapaty, who is known for his hardline anti-Russian rhetoric, is now broadening the practice.

Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State Pedagogical University, linked the rise in strikes on civilian infrastructure to the Ukrainian army's worsening position in the special military operation zone. In his view, by targeting civilian facilities, Kiev is seeking to shift attention from its setbacks on the frontline while also attempting to destabilize public stability in Russia ahead of its parliamentary elections scheduled for September.

Heightened Ukrainian strikes on civilian infrastructure are lowering the prospects for a settlement of the conflict, as Kiev is deliberately escalating violence instead of trying to reduce tensions. Still, Moscow is not rejecting dialogue and remains prepared to consider substantive proposals, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated. However, the peace process has effectively come to a halt, with the latest round of talks involving Russian, US and Ukrainian delegations held in Geneva in February 2026.

Time is running short to relaunch negotiations, as there is no guarantee the White House will continue its peace efforts if Republicans lose the November congressional elections. Moreover, the US Congress may approve a new sanctions package against Russia in September, further complicating the situation.

Political analyst Mikhail Kucherov notes that the United States could withdraw its mediation efforts in the Ukraine conflict if Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress. However, the expert believes that the prospect of Democrats gaining stronger positions in the elections could spur the US president to step up efforts to secure a swift foreign policy success that would boost his approval ratings.

Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani has held his first talks in Damascus with Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The two leaders addressed security issues, trade and economic cooperation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East, Vedomosti reports.

The main goal of Barzani’s visit was to help restore relations between Syria’s Arab and Kurdish communities after the end of the armed conflict in the country, Stanislav Lazovsky, a laboratory researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said. However, the talks may have centered more on the issue of oil transit from Iraq to the Syrian port of Baniyas amid the ongoing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz.

The heads of Iraqi and Syrian energy companies inked an agreement in Washington in mid-July to restore the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline. Oil transit through the pipeline, built back in 1952, was halted following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.

According to Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Russian Government, the White House is promoting the pipeline’s reconstruction in an effort to integrate Syria into regional economic networks and ensure the stability of al-Sharaa’s government. However, despite Washington’s interest in the project, the economic logic does not support the Syrian route as the pipeline would effectively need to be rebuilt from scratch, the expert added.

As for alternative routes for supplying energy to global markets, a pipeline linking Kirkuk oil fields with Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan remains the most competitive option, Yushkov went on to say. According to him, Ankara is interested in the project because oil flows through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline are decreasing due to falling production in Azerbaijan.

As the Ukrainian armed forces continue to strike port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, experts have warned of a drop in grain and vegetable oil exports through traditional routes. A further escalation could interrupt supplies and push global prices up, experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta warned.

Mikhail Maltsev, executive director of Russia’s Oil and Fat Union, notes that supplies through the Sea of Azov have nearly come to a halt, while shipowners are reluctant to call at Black Sea ports due to increased security risks. Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, says that over 80% of grain exports and more than half of sunflower oil shipments pass through the Azov and Black Sea region.

Maltsev notes that the emerging logistical challenges have encouraged vegetable oil exporters to explore alternative routes, primarily through ports on the Baltic and Caspian seas. New options are also being considered, including cargo deliveries through Iran by road to ports on the Gulf of Oman, followed by shipments to India.

Still, it is unlikely to fully replace the Sea of Azov and Black Sea routes with alternative options, experts said. Russia’s southern regions have traditionally been export-oriented, and they anticipate a strong grain harvest this year, said Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Presidential Academy.

Meanwhile, in his opinion, the global market currently has adequate grain reserves, while favorable harvest forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to balance declining crop yields in some European countries. The expert believes that the risk of a large-scale global food crisis will remain low in the coming months. However, the situation could have a stronger impact next season if shipping restrictions persist and exporters fail to quickly restore established logistics routes.

Russia maintained a 10-11% share of China’s timber imports in the first half of 2026 despite a drop in Chinese purchases. Meanwhile, analysts say that falling timber reserves in China and increased logging in Russia could open the door for higher supplies in the second half of the year, Kommersant notes.

Segezha Group Vice President Nikolay Ivanov described the industry’s first-half results as "not so positive," citing China’s weakening demand for timber. According to Russia’s National Price Exchange Agency, China cut timber purchases from all suppliers by five percent between January and June 2026.

In contrast, Pavel Popov, head of timber and construction materials market analytics at the St. Petersburg Exchange, said that despite China’s lower imports, Russian timber exports still surpassed $2.1 billion in the first half of the year. Russia remains the largest supplier to China’s timber market, making up about 42% of imports.

According to Alexander Dyatlov, a committee head at the Arkhangelsk Region’s legislature, prices remain stable across all major markets, although a strong ruble and rising container shipping costs are adding pressure on the industry. Dyatlov believes that a weaker ruble is the only factor that could aid the timber sector, as there are currently no signs of a sharp increase in demand or prices in export markets.

Meanwhile, declining timber reserves at major Chinese ports and rising production in Russia could help Russian companies expand timber exports to China, analysts at the National Price Exchange Agency noted.

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