People queue to get through security at Parliament Hill, July 2, 2022. Photo by Ashley Fraser /Postmedia fileArticle content
According to a poll released two weeks ago by Abacus Data, Mark Carney and the Liberals hold a six-point lead over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, 43 per cent to 37 per cent. Nothing startling there, most pollsters have the Liberals as much as 10 points ahead.
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But just beneath the headline numbers, Abacus shows some intriguing facts about the Canadian electorate.
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And it’s not good news for the Conservatives.
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In most age groups between 18 and 59, the Liberal lead is no more than two or three points. That sounds like good news for Poilievre and crew. Such a gap is easily closed in a good campaign. Or with a high-profile scandal. Or a recession and some failed policies.
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It’s the above-60 crowd that is the challenge for Conservatives. Voters age 60 and over favour the Liberals by a staggering 20 points, 52 per cent to 32 per cent.
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That’s an almost unbelievable gap.
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The further bad news for the Conservatives is that 60-plus voters make up one-third of the voting-age population, and they have the highest voter turnout of any age group.
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Also, Liberal support is — Surprise! Surprise! — concentrated in vote-rich Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. Atlantic Canada is a lock for the Liberals, too, 52 per cent to 35 per cent.
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The Conservatives have major leads only on the Prairies.
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If you can handle even more bad news, here’s another depressing thought. Voters over 60 get more of their news from the CBC than any other outlet. And, of course, the CBC is the Liberals’ unofficial propaganda arm.
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Older voters don’t surf around to independent news sources. They don’t question the CBC’s biases. They just swallow the endless stream of pro-Liberal Pablum coming from the state broadcaster and make up their voting minds based on those distorted views.
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This is the case even after the CBC has been exposed for actively dismissing or deforming Conservative policies and politicians.
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No wonder the Liberals have given the CBC such large budget increases and want to put the CBC in charge of what is and isn’t misinformation on the internet. (Seriously, the Liberals want to give the Liberals the official task of monitoring every other news site for misinformation or disinformation in their reporting.)
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Research by Pollara Strategic Insights for its fourth annual Trust in Media study released in June found that nearly three-quarters of seniors — baby boomers and the slightly older silent generation — trust the CBC. Among all other Canadians, the figure is closer to half or less.
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So why does the CBC have such a pipeline ($1.6 billion a year) into taxpayers’ funds if so few Canadians trust Mother Corp’s news? (On the Prairies, as few as nine per cent of voters trust the CBC.)
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