Release:

Online prediction/betting markets have already attracted nearly $200 million in wagers on the 2026 elections. But a more than half who identified themselves as likely midterm voters say these markets are bad for democracy, according to a new national survey of 1,000 U.S. adults commissioned by the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions (PLEJ). 

The poll found concern across party lines about the potential effects of election prediction markets on public understanding and trust. Among likely 2026 midterm voters:

• 75% say prediction markets create confusion
• 60% say they fuel inaccurate election information
• 45% believe people participating in prediction markets may have access to insider information about election outcomes

Confusion extends to what prediction market odds actually represent. Nearly four in ten likely midterm voters believe that prediction market odds reflect either the number of votes currently counted, or official projections issued by state and local election officials. But the reality is different. Prediction market prices only reflect the activity and expectations of market participants—not votes cast, votes counted, or official election results.

The potential effect on confidence is significant: 38% of likely midterm voters say that if an official election result differed from prediction market odds, it would reduce their confidence in the outcome….