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The Bloc will count on Caroline Dubé, a local community leader and former political staffer, to be their candidate, while the Conservatives announced that Régis Gaudreault, a law professor for the Cégep of Chicoutimi, will try to follow in Martel’s footsteps.

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Fournier noted that the Saguenay region was hit hard by U.S. tariffs last year, especially on aluminum. With the Trump administration ramping up threats of more tariffs, including 50 per cent tariffs by August 19, Fournier wonders if voters will want to punish Carney or if they still view him as the best person to defend their interests.

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Then, there are also questions about Conservative support dropping in Quebec.

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He also noted that while Conservatives — and especially Martel — had a base in the riding, some disappointed Conservative voters could decide to switch parties. That is what happened in the Montreal-area byelection of Terrebonne, last spring, which saw Conservative support fall 15 points and led to the Liberals narrowly beating the Bloc.

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If the Liberals win Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Fournier said it might be because moderate Conservative voters decided to switch parties and vote Liberal to stop the Bloc.

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But the opposite scenario would also be interesting, he said. A Bloc win just days after the start of the Quebec campaign could “give some momentum to the sovereigntist movement” and help the Parti Québécois form government, Fournier added.

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“So, we don’t know what storylines will be the right ones, but there are many to choose from,” he said.

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Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet was quick to point out that the date of the byelection not only falls at the start of the school year in Quebec but will likely be taking place just days after the start of the Quebec election. Provincial sources expect the election to be called from August 27 to 29 while the election is set for October 5.

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Blanchet said the choice to overlap with the Quebec campaign is a testament to the prime minister’s “total disregard for democratic debate.”

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Laura Stephenson, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario, said there is precedent for provincial and federal campaigns overlapping — pointing to Ontario’s 2025 election during the federal Liberal leadership or the 2021 federal campaign being called days before an election in Nova Scotia.

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“It is completely allowed,” she said. “There’s nothing illegal or underhanded about what they’re doing. It is a decent amount of time away from any Quebec election.”

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Stephenson said the Liberals’ goal is also of course to assure a strong majority and see where the wind is blowing before the start of a new parliamentary session in the fall.

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After those three byelections on August 31, the federal government will have to call four more byelections in the coming months. Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault, Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall and Alexandre Boulerice, NDP MP turned independent, have all said they would be resigning their seats at the end of August.

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Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay already resigned his seat in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton, in the suburbs of Montreal. Fournier said he was surprised that Carney opted to not call that byelection at the same time at the three others on August 31.

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The Bloc has already announced a strong candidate in the riding: Caroline Émond, a former executive for the International Dairy Federation and the Dairy Farmers of Canada.

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National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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